Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails.
Markets | LNG | NGI All News Access
Natural gas futures retreated in early trading Thursday as the market looked ahead to a potentially larger-than-average injection in the latest weekly government inventory report. The October Nymex contract was down 9.6 cents to $7.683/MMBtu as of around 8:45 a.m. ET.
Following an up-and-down session Wednesday as markets digested news of Russia’s plans to call up reserves to support its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, natural gas prices could be in for more volatility as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) rolls out its latest storage report, according to NatGasWeather.
“Volatility has been extreme the past few weeks, and we expect this will continue, aided by today’s EIA storage report,” the firm said.
Major surveys show expectations clustering around a larger-than-average injection in the 90s Bcf for EIA’s 10:30 a.m. ET report, which covers net changes to U.S. inventories during the week ended Sept. 16.
Results of Reuters’ poll ranged from predicted increases of 86 Bcf to 99 Bcf, with a median of 93 Bcf. Bloomberg’s survey spanned estimates of 80 Bcf to 104 Bcf, landing at a median expectation for an injection of 95 Bcf.
EIA recorded a year-earlier injection of 77 Bcf, while the five-year average build is 81 Bcf.
“It was warmer than normal over the western, northern and far eastern U.S., while a touch cool over the South and east-central U.S.,” NatGasWeather said of the EIA report week. “We expect a build of 101 Bcf.”
Meanwhile, a disturbance in the southeastern Caribbean, given a 70% chance of cyclone formation over the next 48 hours by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) early Thursday, also appeared to have the market’s attention.
“The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend,” the NHC said.
In terms of anticipating potential impacts to U.S. energy interests, model runs suggest “a lot of spread on where the cyclone goes, as well as the intensity,” putting a range of scenarios in play, according to NatGasWeather.
“Potential impacts are difficult to predict, but the past several years have shown the net effect has been more bearisth than bullish by slowing LNG exports and the loss of demand through cooler temperatures and power outages,” the firm said.
Extended downtime for a liquefied natural gas export terminal would present an “exceptionally bearish” scenario for U.S. prices, while lost production out of the Gulf region would put bullish pressure on the prices, according to NatGasWeather.
© 2022 Natural Gas Intelligence. All rights reserved.
ISSN © 1532-1231 | ISSN © 2577-9877 |
Related topics: henry hub Natural gas futures natural gas prices natural gas storage NYMEX
email jeremiah.shelor@naturalgasintel.com
Daily Gas Price Index – Trending
NGI’s Daily NatGas Price Tracker
Listen to NGI’s ‘Hub and Flow’
Ushering in the official start to the fall season, weekly natural gas cash prices gave up substantial ground amid mild temperatures, fading cooling demand and rising production. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. for the Sept. 19-23 trading period fell $1.185 to $6.485. Heat early in the week quickly dissipated by midweek and, as the…
Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets.
1.800.427.5747 info@naturalgasintel.com Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile
© 2022 Natural Gas Intelligence. All rights reserved.
You have 3 free articles remaining. Get access to 100,000+ more news articles & industry data.
View Subscription Options Sign In